2003 Predictive Track Record


Speculative/Predictive Track Record as of January 2003

  • 1970 - The Beatles will re-unite within 20 years to do at least one album. (Actual occurrance:1995).
  • 1970 - John Lennon will die within the next 20 years of unnatural causes (re: White Album, #9) (Actual occurrance:1981). George Harrison died in 2001 from cancer complications.
  • 1970 - Paul McCartney will perform/reprise "When I'm 64" on the Tonight Show in 2006.
  • 1970 - Before the year 2000 we will discover evidence of life on Mars (Actual occurrance:1997).
  • 1974 - In the 1980's a space shuttle will be destroyed by a disaster. (Actual occurrance:1986).
  • 1978 - Disco will make a comeback in the 1990's as some hybrid form. (Techno/dance)
  • 1983 - AIDS will be hailed by conservative, religious ranks as god's punishment to homosexuals and drug users. In addition many will claim the origin of it to be a conspiracy. (Actual occurrance:1986).
  • 1985 - Smoking in public will become increasingly regulated and banned and within 20 years frowned upon spurring new establishments that cater exclusively to the derelict smoker.
  • 1995 - FASHION: The fedora will storm the fashion industry as the hat from the forties and fifties makes an unprecedented comeback within five (2000-2003) to eight years.

Technical Predictions

  • 1979 - By the year 2000 many computers will be the size of today's calculators but have the capabilities of more recent computers of the day. (2000 - Palmtop and CE Windows handheld and Pocket PC's now exist)
  • 1980 - LCD displays will all replace LED in calculators within five years (1985) (Actual occurrance:1987)
  • 1983 - CD or Compact Disk will within five years replace 50% of the record market replacing vinyl LP's and eventually totally replace them (Actual occurrance:1987).
  • 1985 - Microsoft Windows will become established within five years (1990) as the preferred operating system/shell for most PC's. (Actual occurrance:1992). (2000 - Windows has over 90% of all PC operating systems in the world)
  • 1987 - CD-ROM will become a common peripheral of the PC within five years (1992). (Actual occurrance:1994).  (2000 - record-able CD/R CD/RW players are becoming common peripherals for PCs)
  • 1987 - The Year 2000 problem will created a new business opportunity for new companies and firms to make millions. (Actual occurrance:1996-2000 a 600 billion dollar industry).
  • 1987 - Within ten years, a computerized database TV Guide will be available (1997). (Actual occurrance:1996).TV Host and other online systems (GIST) now provide this. (2000 TV Host ETV bought by TV Guide)
  • 1989 - Windows will replace DOS within five years (1994). (Actual occurrance:1994).
  • 1989 - PC's will replace mainframe dumb terminals within five years (1994) as the preferred way to access and manipulate corporate data. (Actual occurrance:1994).
  • 1989 - HDTV or DTV will begin to replace analog television by the year 2000. (2000 - First generation HDTV monitors and tuners now available for under $3000)  2001: Major networks like CBS and ABC now have most primetime in 1080i and 780p HDTV. DirecTV has HDNet and HBO.
  • 1989 - A public national wide area network of computers will emerge within five years (mid 1990's) (Actual occurrance:1994 a.k.a. Internet).
  • 1989 - The television, computer and telephone will merge (converge) into integrated systems by the year 2000. (Actual occurrance:1996-2000 - Internet Phone, Web-TV, WaveTop, Tivo, etc.  ).
  • 1989 - AT&T will enter the cable television business by 2000 (1999 - AT&T buys Media One, TCI to become the countries largest cable company)
  • 1990 - Car manufacturers will design retro versions of cars: cars that are based on old models but with the latest technology.  For example, Chevrolet may come out with an updated version of it's classic 1956 Chevy or Ford it's 1965 Mustang, but with modern equipment (1995-2005).  Actual occurrence: 1995-2002 Dodge Viper, Ford Thunderbird, VW Bug and the Chrysler PT Cruiser.
  • 1990 - The Communications Act legislation that is being suggested that will break the barriers between the long distance, local and cable television systems will provoke a confusing battle of company alliances, buyouts as well as create new companies and products. (Actual occurrance:1996-2005).
  • 1990 - After the year 2000, electric cars will spur a gradual demand for new commuter/city based vehicles while leaving traditional gas automobiles for more extensive travel purposes. (2000 - hybrid combination battery/gas cars are being made)
  • 1990 - Apple will struggle to survive over the next ten years but will eventually be bought out by a major computer company. (Microsoft invests for now) 2000: Apple in fact is doing quite well and has fended off takeovers.
  • 1994 - The World Wide Web will have profound implications in the computer world as businesses begin to provide information and commerce. (Actual occurrance:1996+).
  • 1994 - A device will become available that allows via software to select the lowest long-distance rates and make the call (actual occurrence: 1999)
  • 1995 - AT&T will undergo a major change within five years. (Actual occurrance:1996).1996 It split into 3 companies...Splits into Lucent/AT&T/NCR.  It is now the largest cable company. Another split is occurring in 2001 this time splits into four separate companies.
  • 1995 - Microsoft will not split or break-up this century, but only when Bill Gates believes it makes sense to do so. (2000 breakup is being considered by Justice Department).  Occurred 2001: Justice Department decided not to break company up.
  • 1995 - The Internet phone will become a threat to common carriers (long distance) over the short term (Actual occurrance:1996)..
  • 1995 - Large flat screen monitors for PC's will replace the tube-based ones within five to eight years, the former looking rather quaint and ridiculous. (2000 - price point is dropping)
  • 1995 - Music will be promoted and purchased via the internet within five years (Actual occurrance:1997+). (There are legal/technicle issues that are slowing this rollout)
  • 1995 - Price comparative internet sites within five years. (1998 - PriceLine)
  • 1996 - Radio and television broadcasts will become commonplace via the Internet within five years (2001) (There are some legal issues being resolved that are slowing this rollout)
  • 1996 - The WWW/Internet will become as commonplace as the telephone or TV within five years (2001)
  • 1997 - DVD will replace VCR and LaserDisk as the preferred movie medium once the DVDRAM becomes established within five years (2002). DVD for computers will replace the CD-ROM common peripheral within three years (2000 - are common on high-end computers). DVD-audio is beginning to rollout (2001)
  • 1997 - DIVX will fail (1999 was discontinued)



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