2000 Predictive Track Record


Speculative/Predictive Track Record as of January 2000

  • 1970 - The Beatles will re-unite within 20 years to do at least one album. (Actual occurrance:1995).
  • 1970 - John Lennon will die within the next 20 years of unnatural causes (re: White Album, #9) (Actual occurrance:1981).
  • 1970 - Paul McCartney will perform/reprise "When I'm 64" on the Tonight Show in 2006.
  • 1970 - Before the year 2000 we will discover evidence of life on Mars (Actual occurrance:1997).
  • 1974 - In the 1980's a space shuttle will be destroyed by a disaster. (Actual occurrance:1986).
  • 1978 - Disco will make a comeback in the 1990's as some hybrid form.
  • 1983 - AIDS will be hailed by conservative, religious ranks as god's punishment to homosexuals and drug users. In addition many will claim the origin of it to be a conspiracy. (Actual occurrance:1986).
  • 1985 - Smoking in public will become increasingly regulated and banned and within 20 years frowned upon spurring new establishments that cater exclusively to the derelict smoker.

Technical Predictions

  • 1979 - By the year 2000 many computers will be the size of today's calculators but have the capabilities of more recent computers of the day. (2000 - Palmtop and CE Windows hand-helds now exist)
  • 1980 - LCD displays will all replace LED in calculators within five years (1985) (Actual occurrance:1987)
  • 1983 - CD or Compact Disk will within five years replace 50% of the record market replacing vinyl LP's and eventually totally replace them (Actual occurrance:1987).
  • 1985 - Microsoft Windows will become established within five years (1990) as the preferred operating system/shell for most PC's. (Actual occurrance:1992). (2000 - Windows has over 90% of all PC operating systems in the world)
  • 1987 - CD-ROM will become a common peripheral of the PC within five years (1992). (Actual occurrance:1994).  (2000 - recordable CD/R CD/RW players are becoming common peripherals for PCs)
  • 1987 - The Year 2000 problem will created a new business opportunity for new companies and firms to make millions. (Actual occurrance:1996-2000 a 600 billion dollar industry).
  • 1987 - Within ten years, a computerized database TV Guide will be available (1997). (Actual occurrance:1996).TV Host and other online systems (GIST) now provide this. (2000 TV Host ETV bought by TV Guide)
  • 1989 - Windows will replace DOS within five years (1994). (Actual occurrance:1994).
  • 1989 - PC's will replace mainframe dumb terminals within five years (1994) as the preferred way to access and manipulate corporate data. (Actual occurrance:1994).
  • 1989 - HDTV or DTV will begin to replace analog television by the year 2000. (2000 - First generation HDTV monitors and tuners now available for under $3000)
  • 1989 - A public national wide area network of computers will emerge within five years (mid 1990's) (Actual occurrance:1994 aka Internet).
  • 1989 - The television, computer and telephone will merge (converge) into integrated systems by the year 2000. (Actual occurrance:1996-2000 - Internet Phone, Web-TV, WaveTop, Tivo, etc.  ).
  • 1989 - AT&T will enter the cable television business by 2000 (1999 - AT&T buys Media One, TCI to become the countries largest cable company)
  • 1990 - The Communications Act legislation that is being suggested that will break the barriers between the long distance, local and cable television systems will provoke a confusing battle of company alliances, buyouts as well as create new companies and products. (Actual occurrance:1996-2000).
  • 1990 - After the year 2000, electric cars will spur a gradual demand for new commuter/city based vehicles while leaving traditional gas automobiles for more extensive travel purposes. (2000 - hybrid combination battery/gas cars are being made)
  • 1990 - Apple will struggle to survive over the next ten years but will eventually be bought out by a major computer company. (Microsoft invests for now) 2000: Apple in fact is doing quite well and has fended off takeovers.
  • 1994 - The World Wide Web will have profound implications in the computer world as businesses begin to provide information and commerce. (Actual occurrance:1996).
  • 1994 - A device will become available that allows via software to select the lowest long-distance rates and make the call (actual occurrence: 1999)
  • 1995 - FASHION: The fedora will storm the fashion industry as the hat from the forties and fifties makes an unprecedented comeback within five (2000-2003) to eight years.
  • 1995 - AT&T will undergo a major change within five years. (Actual occurrance:1996).1996 It split into 3 companies...Splits into Lucent/AT&T/NCR.  It is now the largest cable company.
  • 1995 - Microsoft will not split or break-up this century, but only when Bill Gates believes it makes sense to do so. (2000 breakup is being considered by Justice Department)
  • 1995 - The Internet phone will become a threat to common carriers (long distance) over the short term (Actual occurrance:1996)..
  • 1995 - Large flat screen monitors will replace the tube-based ones within five to eight years, the former looking rather quaint and ridiculous. (2000 - price point is dropping)
  • 1995 - Music will be promoted and purchased via the internet within five years (Actual occurrance:1997+).
  • 1995 - Price comparative internet sites within five years. (1998 - PriceLine)
  • 1996 - Radio and television broadcasts will become commonplace via the Internet within five years (2001)
  • 1996 - The WWW/Internet will become as commonplace as the telephone or TV within five years (2001)
  • 1997 - DVD will replace VCR and LaserDisk as the preferred movie medium once the DVDRAM becomes established within five years (2002). DVD for computers will replace the CD-ROM common peripheral within three years (2000 - are common on high-end computers).
  • 1997 - DIVX will fail (1999 was discontinued)



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